Over the coming months, I will share 22 short summaries of the central arguments in How Migration Really Works. Each summary contrasts the conventional wisdom on a major migration issue with scientific evidence on the nature, drivers and impacts of migration. Subscribe for free to receive the next migration myth.
The conventional wisdom
Global migration is at an all-time high and accelerating rapidly. The world has never experienced this much migration, and numbers are increasing fast. Grinding poverty, population growth, oppression, warfare and climate change lead to rapidly accelerating migration. Increasing inequality and greater ease of travel and communication have further heightened migration pressures. Growing numbers of poor people flock to cities and destinations abroad, exceeding the absorption capacity of Western societies. Rapidly multiplying migration and refugee crises around the world show that, unless these problems are addressed urgently, this growing South-North exodus will spin out of control.
How it really works
Current migration levels are not exceptionally high. International migrants have represented 3-4 per cent of the world population over recent decades. Relative global migration levels were higher in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The main change has been in the dominant geographical direction of migration, particularly through the transformation of Europe from the world’s main source of emigrants into a major migration destination. As part of this ‘global migration reversal’, non-Europeans make up a growing share of immigrant populations in Western countries. However, the evidence challenges the idea of a massive South-North exodus. As migration is costly and most people prefer to stay close to home, most migrants move within countries – roughly four out of five – or to neighbouring countries. While refugee migration fluctuates strongly with conflict levels, refugees comprise between 7 and 12 per cent of international migrants. This defies the popular idea of a global migration crisis that is spinning out of control.
This is part 1 of a series of 22 short summaries of the main arguments in How Migration Really Works, published by Penguin and available or forthcoming in 15 languages. The full evidence and analysis can be found in the book.
